FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Q: What information does the NHC issue in their advisories?

A: The NHC issues an official forecast, every six hours, of the center position, maximum one-minute surface (10 meter [33 ft] elevation) wind speed (intensity), and radii of the 34 knot (39 mph, 63 kph), 50 knot (58 mph, 92 kph), and 64 knot (74 mph, 117 kph) wind speeds in four quadrants (northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest) surrounding the cyclone.

Q: What if an Atlantic storm turns west but dies at sea; or a Gulf storm hits landfall in Mexico; or a Gulf storm hits Tampico, Mexico, but then turns north and east, passing back to the Gulf at about Corpus Christi and hits land again in New Orleans; or the first landfall of an Atlantic storm is in New Brunswick?

A: In each case, the "Landfall Location" identified by the code "expire" is the relevant one.

Q: What if a named storm goes over Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula before making U.S. landfall as a hurricane? Would that still count?

A: Yes, as long as the storm is over water just prior to making its initial U.S. landfall.

Q: What if a named tropical storm never makes it to hurricane strength but does make a U.S. landfall?

A: The Hurricane Futures Market trades in named Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones, which may be hurricanes, tropical storms or tropical depressions at the time of landfall.

Q: What if a storm becomes a hurricane but loses hurricane strength before hitting land?

A: Once a storm is named, any U.S. landfall is relevant as long as it remains a tropical cyclone. The Hurricane Futures Market defines a tropical cyclone as "expired" once the NHC issues its final advisory before U.S. landfall is reached.

Q: What about Hurricane Ivan from 2004? Would the Hurricane Futures Market have considered Ivan to be a Florida, Alabama or Louisiana strike?

A: When Ivan made its initial U.S. landfall, its geographic center was 30.2^o N latitude, 87.9^o W longitude, just west of Pine Beach, Alabama. So, the Hurricane Futures Market would have considered Ivan to be a GS_4 strike, even though its strongest winds were felt near Pensacola, FL, and despite the fact that Ivan later made a second U.S. landfall as a tropical depression eight days later near Holly Beach, Louisiana.

Q: Sometimes a storm re-generates after the NHC has issued its final advisory for that storm, as was the case with Ivan. How will the Hurricane Futures Market handle a situation like that?

A: The NHC's final advisory signals an end to any Hurricane Futures Market contract. Should a storm re-generate to tropical depression status with the same name, or into a tropical storm with a different name, the Hurricane Futures Market will open a new market for the storm.

Q: How were the coastline segments determined?

A: We used U.S. landfalls of named storms during 1950-2004 to determine coastline segments having approximately equal historical probabilities of landfall. For the U.S. Gulf Coast, including the Florida Keys, approximately 12.5% of the storms that have landed in the U.S. first landed in each of the eight coastline segments. Similarly, for the U.S. Atlantic coast, excluding the Florida Keys, approximately 12.5% of the storms that have landed in the U.S. first landed in each of the eight coastline segments.

Q: Is the center of a storm the same thing as its eye or eyewall? What about the location of its strongest winds?

A: These are similar, but not quite the same thing. The eye of a tropical storm is the roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the center. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud, where the strongest winds tend to be. While a storm's strongest winds, eyewall and center all occur in the same vicinity, they may be far enough apart to matter for the purpose of defining landfall. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water.